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☆ Wall Street's scenarios for the Israel-Iran conflict from here and its impact on the oil market
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The oil market has brushed off Iran's weekend air assault against Israel, with futures trading as much as 1.5% lower on Monday. Oil prices could spike above $100 a barrel depending on how Israel responds to the attack, the analyst wrote. Attack 'well-telegraphed' Iran's attack, though unprecedented, did little actual damage as Israel and the U.S. intercepted nearly all the drones and missiles. The Islamic Republic warned, however, it would strike harder next time if Israel responds to the weekend attack. Potential threats include Iran seizing ships associated with Israel in the Strait of Hormuz; Israel attacking Iranian oil and gas assets; or Iran striking energy assets of its neighbors if Israel hits too hard.

Persons: Israel, Maximilian Layton, Layton, Brent, Helima Croft, CNBC's, Natasha Kaneva, Kaneva, Goldman, Daan Struyven, RBC's Croft, Jan Stuart, Piper Sandler, Stuart Organizations: Citi ., Brent, Citi, RBC Capital Markets, RBC, U.S, United Nations, Islamic, JPMorgan, CNBC Locations: Israel, Iran, Damascus, Syria, Tehran, Lebanon, Republic, Islamic Republic, Goldman Sachs, Strait, Hormuz, Iranian

☆ Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries shows the growing threat AI drones pose to energy markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-14 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Ukraine's campaign of attacks against Russian oil refineries is demonstrating how relatively cheap drones that utilize artificial intelligence could pose a major threat to global energy markets. Ukraine-launched drones have hit 18 Russian oil refineries this year with a combined capacity of 3.9 million barrels per day, according to report published by JPMorgan earlier this month. Some 670,000 bpd of Russian refining capacity is currently offline due to the strikes, according to the bank. "Certainly, those attacks could have a knock-on effect in terms of the global energy situation," Austin told the Senate Armed Services Committee. The deployment of AI drones also has broader implications for global energy markets, according to Bob Brackett, a senior research analyst at Bernstein.

Persons: Natasha Kaneva, Lloyd Austin, Biden, Austin, we've, John Kilduff, Bob Brackett, Bernstein, Brackett Organizations: Reuters, JPMorgan, Kyiv, . Defense, Senate Armed Services Committee, Financial, Again Locations: Ukraine, Ryazan, Ryazan Region, Russia, Taneco, Kyiv, Moscow, Russian, China, India

☆ Oil prices could spike to $100 if Iran directly attacks Israel, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The price of global benchmark Brent crude oil could spike to $100 a barrel if Iran directly attacks Israel, a former senior White House energy official said. @LCO.1 YTD mountain Brent crude oil, YTD Oil rallied last week after a missile attack destroyed Iran's consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing seven Iranian military officials. "If Iran attacks from its territory, Israel will react and attack Iran," Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said on the social media platform X , tagging Ayatollah Khamenei. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made clear that the Biden administration is worried about rising energy prices during congressional testimony Tuesday. "Certainly, those attacks could have a knock-on effect in terms of the global energy situation," Austin told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Persons: Bob McNally, McNally, George W, Brent, YTD Oil, Israel, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Khamenei, Israel Katz, Biden, terrify, Daniel Yergin, Yergin, CNBC's, Natasha Kaneva, Lloyd Austin, Austin Organizations: Brent, White House, Rapidan, Bloomberg News, YTD, Israel, Iran, Rapidan Energy, Biden, P Global, JPMorgan, Defense, Senate Armed Services Committee Locations: Iran, Israel, U.S, Washington, Damascus, Syria, OPEC, Tehran, Islamic Republic, Strait, Hormuz, Persian, Kyiv, Ukraine

☆ JPMorgan says oil could rise to nearly $100 a barrel on Russia's 'surprising' actions ahead of U.S. election
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-27 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The price of global benchmark Brent crude oil could surge to $100 a barrel ahead of the U.S. election as Russia slashes its output, according to JPMorgan. "The shift in Russia's oil strategy is surprising," Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at JPMorgan, told clients in a note Wednesday. Russia's cuts could push Brent to $90 in April and nearly $100 by September, which would put pressure on the Biden administration in the runup to the November presidential elections, Kaneva wrote. The White House could, however, tap the strategic petroleum reserve with space to release up to 60 million barrels, Kaneva wrote. Demand destruction, in turn, would result in lower crude prices, according to the analyst.

Persons: Natasha Kaneva, Brent, Biden, Kaneva Organizations: Brent, JPMorgan, Reuters Locations: Russia, Saudi Arabia, Moscow, OPEC, U.S

☆ JPMorgan says oil could rise to the high $80s by May
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Brent crude oil futures are poised to rise $10 a barrel over the next three months even without any geopolitical risk premium built in, according to JPMorgan's commodity analysts. That would put the global benchmark just below $90 a barrel by May based on Wednesday's settlement of $79.21. Oil prices are expected to rise as the market tightens due to falling global crude inventories, Kaneva wrote. Crude inventories are falling around the world as the economy remains resilient with the U.S., Europe and China maintaining stable growth, which is positive for oil demand, according to JPMorgan. "Near-term dynamics aside, our Brent outlook continues to project a tightening market with prices rising from here by another $10 by May," Kaneva told clients.

Persons: Natasha Kaneva, Kaneva Organizations: Brent, U.S, JPMorgan, OPEC Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Europe, China

☆ Saudi Arabia is struggling to boost oil prices, raising possibility of supply war with U.S.
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

OPEC is facing growing challenges in its efforts to boost oil prices amid record output outside the alliance, particularly in the U.S., raising questions about how long the alliance can maintain its deep production cuts. The outcome is a "bittersweet victory" for OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia, wrote Jorge Leon, senior vice president of Rystad Energy, in a note Thursday. With oil prices down more than 14% since September highs, traders were hoping that OPEC could provide a boost. In the end, Saudi Arabia may have only one option — launch a supply war by flooding the market with oil. The 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts from the coalition of the willing is somewhat deceiving.

Persons: Jorge Leon, bode, Leon, Brent, Natasha Kaneva, Paul Sankey, John Kilduff, Kilduff, it's, Sankey, Kaneva, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Daan Struyven, Struyven Organizations: Rystad Energy, Traders, Sankey Research, U.S . Oil, U.S, OPEC, United Arab, Goldman Locations: U.S, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Riyadh, Saudi, China, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman

☆ Oil prices drop 6% as worries mount over demand destruction
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Oil prices fell 6% on Wednesday as worries grow about lower demand and a slowing economy. Reports surfaced that Russia might end its ban on diesel exports, and oil inventories rose in some areas. AdvertisementAdvertisementUS and Brent oil prices both fell as much as 6% on Wednesday, representing a sharp reversal of an uptrend that began in July. According to JPMorgan, oil could be suffering from demand destruction as a result of the sharp rise in prices this summer, especially as the peak travel season winds down. "Demand destruction has begun (again)," JPMorgan's Natasha Kaneva said in a Wednesday note, adding that "global oil stock draws have ended."

Persons: Natasha Kaneva, —, Brent, Platts, Kaneva Organizations: Service, Brent, West Texas Intermediate, Energy Department, JPMorgan Locations: Russia, Saudi Arabia

☆ The greenback is 'losing some influence' in the oil markets — and it means a partial de-dollarization is likely, says JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The US dollar is losing some influence in the oil markets, according to JPMorgan. The correlation between the USD's strength and oil prices has weakened, per the bank's research. The analyst drew the conclusion by looking at the impact of a strengthening dollar on oil prices. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe relationship exists because the dollar is traditionally inversely correlated to oil prices — meaning that when the greenback's value rises, oil prices fall, and vice versa. This trend is because more oil is now being transacted in non-dollar currencies, JPMorgan said in its report, such as the Chinese yuan.

Persons: Natasha Kaneva, Kaneva, Jahangir Aziz, —, It's Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Brent, Reuters, Russia Locations: Wall, Silicon, China, Russia, Ukraine, Washington

☆ Analysis: Saudi Arabia's 'icing on the cake' oil cut could feed US producers
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Dmitry Zhdannikov | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

With the new Saudi reduction, the group has agreed to take some 4.6 million bpd off the market in July, equivalent to 4.6% of global demand of 100 million bpd. OPEC+ also agreed on Sunday to extend the group's existing supply cuts of 3.66 million bpd into 2024. In response, oil prices rose nearly $2 a barrel early on Monday to $78 per barrel . "This market needs stabilisation," Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Sunday, calling his surprise decision to deepen Saudi production cuts "the icing on the cake" for the deal. So far this year, a weakening global economy, concern about the U.S. banking crisis, and a slow Chinese recovery from COVID-19 restrictions have capped oil prices.

Persons: Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Prince Abdulaziz, Natasha Kaneva, Morgan, Tamas Varga, Jorge Leon, Sunday's, JPM, Kaneva, Alex Lawler, Ahmad Ghaddar, el, Dmitry Zhdannikov, Simon Webb, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Saudi Energy, OPEC, White, International Energy Agency, Rystad Energy, United, Thomson Locations: Saudi, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, U.S, Russia, Ukraine, Riyadh, United States, States, COVID, Angola, Nigeria, United Arab Emirates

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